A model-based framework for chronic hepatitis C prevalence estimation
Autoři:
Abdullah Hamadeh aff001; Zeny Feng aff002; Murray Krahn aff003; William W. L. Wong aff001
Působiště autorů:
School of Pharmacy, University of Waterloo, Kitchener, ON, Canada
aff001; Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Guelph, Guelph, ON, Canada
aff002; Toronto Health Economics and Technology Assessment Collaborative, University Health Network, Toronto General Hospital, Toronto, ON, Canada
aff003; Toronto General Research Institute, Toronto, ON, Canada
aff004
Vyšlo v časopise:
PLoS ONE 14(11)
Kategorie:
Research Article
doi:
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0225366
Souhrn
Chronic hepatitis C (CHC) continues to be a highly burdensome disease worldwide. The often-asymptomatic nature of early-stage CHC means that the disease often remains undiagnosed, leaving its prevalence highly uncertain. This generates significant uncertainty in the planning of hepatitis C eradication programs to meet WHO targets. The aim of this work is to establish a mathematical framework for the estimation of a geographic locale’s CHC prevalence and the proportion of its CHC population that remains undiagnosed. A Bayesian MCMC approach is taken to infer these populations from the observed occurrence of CHC-related events using a recently published natural history model of the disease. Using the Canadian context as a specific example, this study estimates that in 2013, the CHC prevalence rate in Canada was 0.63% (95% CI: 0.53% - 0.72%), with 27.1% (95% CI: 19.3% - 36.1%) of the infected population undiagnosed.
Klíčová slova:
Canada – Cohort studies – Fibrosis – Hepatitis C – Hepatitis C virus – Hepatocellular carcinoma – Liver diseases – Natural history of disease
Zdroje
1. World Health Organization. Global Hepatitis Report 2017. Geneva:; 2017.
2. Wong W, Erman A, Feld J, Krahn M. Model-based projection of health and economic effects of screening for hepatitis C in Canada. CMAJ Open. 2017; 5(3): p. E662–E672. doi: 10.9778/cmajo.20170048 28851700
3. Remis RS. Modelling the incidence and prevalence of Hepatitis C infection and its sequelae in Canada, 2007. Ottawa: Public Health Agency of Canada; 2009.
4. Thein HH, Yi Q, Dore GJ, Krahn MD. Estimation of stage-specific fibrosis progression rates in chronic hepatitis C virus infection: a meta-analysis and meta-regression. Hepatology. 2008; 48(2): p. 418–431. doi: 10.1002/hep.22375 18563841
5. Trubnikov M, Yan P, Archibald C. Estimated prevalence of Hepatitis C Virus infection in Canada, 2011. Canada Communicable Disease Report. 2014; 40(19): p. 429–436. doi: 10.14745/ccdr.v40i19a02 29769874
6. Wong W, Tu HA, Feld JJ, Wong T, Krahn M. Cost-effectiveness of screening for hepatitis C in Canada. CMAJ. 2015; 187(3): p. E110–E121. doi: 10.1503/cmaj.140711 25583667
7. Press WH, Teukolsky SA, Vetterling WT, Flannery BP. Numerical Recipes 3rd Edition: The Art of Scientific Computing: Cambridge University Press; 2007.
8. Statistics Canada. Table 103–0550—Number and rates of new cases of primary cancer (based on the November 2017 CCR tabulation file), by cancer type, age group and sex, Canada, provinces and territories. [Online].
9. Public Health Agency of Canada. Canadian Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System. [Online].
10. Micallef JM, Kaldor JM, Dore GJ. Spontaneous viral clearance following acute hepatitis C infection: a systematic review of longitudinal studies. Journal of Viral Hepatitis. 2006; 13(1): p. 34–41. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2893.2005.00651.x 16364080
11. US Department of Veterans Affairs. Hepatitis C Genotypes. [Online]. Available from: https://www.hepatitis.va.gov/provider/reviews/genotypes.asp.
12. van der Meer AJ, Veldt BJ, Feld JJ, Wedemeyer H, Dufour JF, Lammert F, et al. Association between sustained virological response and all-cause mortality among patients with chronic hepatitis C and advanced hepatic fibrosis. JAMA. 2012; 308(24): p. 2584–2593. doi: 10.1001/jama.2012.144878 23268517
13. Statistics Canada. Table: 13-10-0114-01: Life expectancy and other elements of the life table, Canada, all provinces except Prince Edward Island. [Online].
14. Krajden M, Cook DA, Wong S, Yu A, Butt ZA, Rossi C, et al. What is killing people with hepatitis C virus infection? Analysis of a population-based cohort in Canada. Int J Drug Policy. 2019 October; 72(114–122).
15. Miller CL, Kerr T, Strathdee SA, Li K, Wood E. Factors associated with premature mortality among young injection drug users in Vancouver. Harm Reduction Journal. 2007; 4(1).
16. Centre for Communicable Diseases and Infection Control. Hepatitis C in Canada: 2005–2010 Surveillance Report. Ottawa:; 2012.
17. Public Health Agency of Canada. Epidemiology of acute hepatitis C infection in Canada. Results from the Enhanced Hepatitis Strain Surveillance System (EHSSS). Ottawa:; 2010.
18. Statistics Canada. Estimates of population, by age group and sex for July 1, Canada, provinces and territories. [Online]. Available from: http://www5.statcan.gc.ca/cansim/a26?id=510001.
19. Samji H, Yu A, Kuo M, Alavi M, Woods R, Alvarez M, et al. Late hepatitis B and C diagnosis in relation to disease decompensation and hepatocellular carcinoma development. Journal of Hepatology. 2017; 67(5): p. 909–917. doi: 10.1016/j.jhep.2017.06.025 28684103
20. Shah H, Bilodeau M, Burak K, Cooper C, Klein M, Ramji A, et al. The management of chronic hepatitis C: 2018 guideline update from the Canadian Association for the Study of the Liver. CMAJ. 2018; 190: p. E677–687. doi: 10.1503/cmaj.170453 29866893
21. Canadian Task Force on Preventive Health Care. Recommendations on hepatitis C screening for adults. CMAJ. 2017; 189: p. E594–604. doi: 10.1503/cmaj.161521 28438952
22. Rotermann M, Langlois K, Andonov A, Trubnikov M. Seroprevalence of hepatitis B and C virus infections: Results from the 2007 to 2009 and 2009 to 2011 Canadian Health Measures Survey. Health Reports. 2013; 24(11): p. 3. 24259199
23. Hamadeh A, Feng Z, Krahn M, Wong WWL. Back-calculating chronic hepatitis C prevalence using multiple calibration sources. In Society for Medical Decision Making 40th Annual North American Meeting; 2018.
24. Strong M, Oakley JE, Brennan A. Estimating Multiparameter Partial Expected Value of Perfect Information from a Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis Sample: A Nonparametric Regression Approach. Medical Decision Making. 2014 April; 34(3): p. 311–326. doi: 10.1177/0272989X13505910 24246566
25. Goossens N, Hoshida. Hepatitis C virus-induced hepatocellular carcinoma. Clinical and Molecular Hepatology. 2015; 21(2): p. 105–114. doi: 10.3350/cmh.2015.21.2.105 26157746
26. Oostenbrink JB, Al MJ, Oppe M, Rutten-van Mölken MP. Expected value of perfect information: an empirical example of reducing decision uncertainty by conducting additional research. Value in Health. 2008; 11(7): p. 1070–1080. doi: 10.1111/j.1524-4733.2008.00389.x 19602213
Článek vyšel v časopise
PLOS One
2019 Číslo 11
- Jak a kdy u celiakie začíná reakce na lepek? Možnou odpověď poodkryla čerstvá kanadská studie
- Pomůže v budoucnu s triáží na pohotovostech umělá inteligence?
- Spermie, vajíčka a mozky – „jednohubky“ z výzkumu 2024/38
- Metamizol jako analgetikum první volby: kdy, pro koho, jak a proč?
- Infekce se v Americe po příjezdu Kolumba šířily nesrovnatelně déle, než se traduje
Nejčtenější v tomto čísle
- A daily diary study on maladaptive daydreaming, mind wandering, and sleep disturbances: Examining within-person and between-persons relations
- A 3’ UTR SNP rs885863, a cis-eQTL for the circadian gene VIPR2 and lincRNA 689, is associated with opioid addiction
- A substitution mutation in a conserved domain of mammalian acetate-dependent acetyl CoA synthetase 2 results in destabilized protein and impaired HIF-2 signaling
- Molecular validation of clinical Pantoea isolates identified by MALDI-TOF
Zvyšte si kvalifikaci online z pohodlí domova
Všechny kurzy