Dispersion of Legionella bacteria in atmosphere: A practical source location estimation method
Autoři:
Steven Dyke aff001; Iain Barrass aff001; Kevin Pollock aff002; Ian M. Hall aff001
Působiště autorů:
Emergency Response Department Science and Technology (ERD S&T), Public Health England, Porton Down, Wiltshire, United Kingdom, SP4 0JG
aff001; Health Protection Scotland, Glasgow, United Kingdom
aff002; School of Health and Life Sciences, Glasgow Caledonian University, Glasgow, United Kingdom
aff003
Vyšlo v časopise:
PLoS ONE 14(11)
Kategorie:
Research Article
doi:
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0224144
Souhrn
Legionnaires’ disease, a form of pneumonia which can be fatal, is transmitted via the inhalation of water droplets containing Legionella bacteria. These droplets can be dispersed in the atmosphere several kilometers from their source. The most common such sources are contaminated water within cooling towers and other air-conditioning systems but other sources such as ornamental fountains and spa pools have also caused outbreaks of the disease in the past. There is an obvious need to locate and eliminate any such sources as quickly as possible. Here a maximum likelihood model estimating the source of an outbreak from case location data has been developed and implemented. Unlike previous models, the average dose exposure sub-model is formulated using a atmospheric dispersion model. How the uncertainty in inferred parameters can be estimated is discussed. The model is applied to the 2012 Edinburgh Legionnaires’ disease outbreak.
Klíčová slova:
Aerosols – Bacterial pathogens – Data visualization – Epidemiology – Inhalation – Statistical models – Legionellosis – Legionella
Zdroje
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