A measure of inconsistencies in intertemporal choice
Autoři:
Salvador Cruz Rambaud aff001; Isabel González Fernández aff001
Působiště autorů:
Departamento de Economía y Empresa, Universidad de Almería, Almería, Spain
aff001
Vyšlo v časopise:
PLoS ONE 14(10)
Kategorie:
Research Article
doi:
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0224242
Souhrn
The aim of this paper is to derive an index able to indicate if a discount function exhibits increasing or decreasing impatience, and, even, in the last case, whether the decreasing impatience is moderate or strong. Moreover, it will be shown that the sign of this indicator coincides with the sign of the convexity index of the discount function when only considering the cases of increasing and decreasing impatience. Consequently, this parameter supposes an improvement of Prelec’s index of convexity. The main advantage of this novel measure is that, the same as Prelec’s index, it uses the differential calculus and, moreover, can be easily plotted by showing the changes from a type of impatience to another one according to time.
Klíčová slova:
Addiction – Calculus – Decision making – Deformation – Economic models – Finance – Gambling addiction – Impulsivity
Zdroje
1. Cruz Rambaud S, Muñoz Torrecillas MJ. Measuring impatience in intertemporal choice. PLoS ONE 2016 Feb;11(2):e0149256. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0149256 26890895
2. Fishburn PC, Rubinstein A. Time preference. International Economic Review 1982 Oct;23(3):677–694. doi: 10.2307/2526382
3. Samuelson PA. A note on measurement of utility. The Review of Economic Studies 1937 Feb;4(2):155–161. doi: 10.2307/2967612
4. Takahashi T, Han R, Nakamura F. Time discounting: Psychophysics of intertemporal and probabilistic choices. Journal of Behavioral Economics and Finance 2012 Jun;5:10–14.
5. Kirby KN, Herrnstein R. Preference reversals due to myopic discounting of delayed reward. Psychological Science 1995 Mar;6(2):83–90. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-9280.1995.tb00311.x
6. Kirby KN. Bidding on the future: Evidence against normative discounting of delayed rewards. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 1997 Mar;126(1):54–70. doi: 10.1037/0096-3445.126.1.54
7. Strotz R. Myopia and inconsistency in dynamic utility maximization. Review of Economic Studies 1955 Dec;23(3):165–180. doi: 10.2307/2295722
8. Cruz Rambaud S, González Fernández I, Ventre V. Modeling the inconsistency in intertemporal choice: The generalized Weibull discount function andits extension. Annals of Finance 2018 Aug;14(3):415–426. doi: 10.1007/s10436-018-0318-3
9. Cruz Rambaud S, Ventre A.G.S. Intertemporal choice and nonadditive capitalization functions. International Journal of Intelligent Systems 2011 Jan;26(1):63–72. doi: 10.1002/int.20453
10. Cruz Rambaud S, Muñoz Torrecillas MJ. Capitalization speed of a financial law. Proceedings of the Fourth Italian-Spanish Conference on FinancialMathematics. Alghero (Italy) from June 28 to July 1, 2001.
11. Prelec D. Decreasing impatience: A criterion for non-stationary timepreference and “hyperbolic” discounting. Scandinavian Journal of Economics 2004 Sep;106(3):511–532. doi: 10.1111/j.0347-0520.2004.00375.x
12. Rohde KIM. The hyperbolic factor: A measure of time inconsistency. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 2010 Oct;41(2):125–140. doi: 10.1007/s11166-010-9100-2
13. Rohde KIM. An index to measure decreasing impatience. Working paper of the Tinbergen Institute and Erasmus Research Instituteof Management 2015.
14. González Fernández I, Cruz Rambaud S. Inconsistency in intertemporal choice: A behavioral approach. European Journal of Management and Business Economics 2018 Oct;27(3):231–248. doi: 10.1108/EJMBE-01-2018-0012
15. Haushofer J, Cornelisse S, Seinstra M, Fehr E, Joëls M, Kalenscher T. No effects of psychosocial stress on intertemporal choice. PLoS One 2013 Nov;8(11):e78597. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0078597 24250800
16. Bickel WK, Jarmolowicz DP, Mueller ET, Koffarnus MN, Gatchalian KM. Excessive discounting of delayed reinforcers as a transdisease process contributing to addiction and otherdisease-related vulnerabilities: Emerging evidence. Pharmacology and Therapeutics 2012 Jun;134(3):287–297. doi: 10.1016/j.pharmthera.2012.02.004 22387232
17. MacKillop J, Amlung MT, Few LR, Ray LA, Sweet LH, Munafò MR. Delayed reward discounting and addictive behavior: A meta-analysis. Psychopharmacology 2011 Aug;216(3):305–321. doi: 10.1007/s00213-011-2229-0 21373791
19. Snider SE, DeHart WB, Epstein LH, Bickel WK. Does delay discounting predict maladaptive health and financial behaviors in smokers?. Health Psychology 2019 Jan;38(1):21–28. doi: 10.1037/hea0000695 30474996
18. Bickel WK, Odum AL, Madden GJ. Impulsivity and cigarette smoking: Delay discounting in current, never, and ex-smokers. Psychopharmacology 1999 Oct;146(4):447–454. doi: 10.1007/pl00005490 10550495
20. Madden GJ, Petry NM, Badger GJ, Bickel WK. Impulsive and self-control choices in opioid-dependent patients and non-drug-usingcontrol participants: Drug and monetary rewards. Experimental and Clinical Psychopharmacology 1997 Aug;5(3):256–262. doi: 10.1037/1064-1297.5.3.256 9260073
21. Coffey SF, Gudleski GD, Saladin ME, Brady KT. Impulsivity and rapid discounting of delayed hypothetical rewards in cocaine-dependent individuals. Experimental and Clinical Psychopharmacology 2003 Feb;11(1):18–25. doi: 10.1037/1064-1297.11.1.18 12622340
22. Petry NM. Discounting of delayed rewards in substance abusers: Relationship to antisocial personality disorder. Psychopharmacology 2002 Aug;162(4):425–432. doi: 10.1007/s00213-002-1115-1 12172697
23. Cruz Rambaud S, Muñoz Torrecillas MJ, Takahashi T. Observed and normative discount functions in addiction and other diseases. Frontiers in Pharmacology 2017 Jun;8(416):1–10.
24. Sayman S, Öncüler A. An investigation of time inconsistency. Management Science 2009 Mar;55(3):470–482. doi: 10.1287/mnsc.1080.0942
25. Takeuchi K. Non-parametric test of time consistency: Present bias and future bias. Games and Economic Behavior 2011 Mar;71:456–478. doi: 10.1016/j.geb.2010.05.005
26. Dos Santos LS, Martinez AS. Inconsistency and subjective time dilation perception in intertemporal decision making. Frontiers in Applied Mathematics and Statistics 2018 Nov;4:54. doi: 10.3389/fams.2018.00054
27. Cruz Rambaud S, Ventre V. Deforming time in a nonadditive discount function. International Journal of Intelligent Systems 2016 Sep;32(5):467–480. doi: 10.1002/int.21842
28. Bleichrodt H, Rohde KIM, Wakker PP. Non-hyperbolic time inconsistency. Games and Economic Behavior 2009 May;6:27–38. doi: 10.1016/j.geb.2008.05.007
29. Bleichrodt H, Gao Y, Rohde KIM. A measurement of decreasing impatience for health and money. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 2016 Sep;52(3):213–231. doi: 10.1007/s11166-016-9240-0
30. Prelec D. Decreasing impatience: Definition and consequences. Harvard Business School Working Paper no. 90-015 1989.
31. Ebert JEJ, Prelec D. The fragility of time: Time-insensitivity and valuation of the near and far future. Management Science 2007 Jul;53(9):1423–1438. doi: 10.1287/mnsc.1060.0671
32. Baucells M, Heukamp FH. Probability and time trade-off. Management Science 2012 Apr;58(4):831–842. doi: 10.1287/mnsc.1110.1450
33. Rohde KIM. Decreasing relative impatience. Journal of Economic Psychology 2009 Dec;30(6):831–839. doi: 10.1016/j.joep.2009.08.008
34. Cruz Rambaud S, Muñoz Torrecillas MJ. A generalization of the q-exponential discounting function. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications 2013 Jul;392(14):3045–3050. doi: 10.1016/j.physa.2013.03.009
35. Rohde KIM. Measuring decreasing and increasing impatience. Management Science 2019 Apr;65(4):1455–1947. doi: 10.1287/mnsc.2017.3015
36. Guo Q-W, Chen S, Schonfeld P, Li Z. How time-inconsistent preferences affect investment timing for rail transit. Transportation Research Part B 2018 Oct;118:172–192. doi: 10.1016/j.trb.2018.10.009
37. Millner A, Heal G. Time consistency and time invariance in collective intertemporal choice. Journal of Economic Theory 2018 Mar;176:158–169. doi: 10.1016/j.jet.2018.03.002
38. Lemoine D. Age-induced acceleration of time: Implications for intertemporal choice. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 2018 Jul;153:143–152. doi: 10.1016/j.jebo.2018.07.002
39. Löckenhoff CE, Samanez-Larkin GR. Age differences in intertemporal choice:The role of task type, outcome characteristics, and covariates. Journals of Gerontology. Series B: Psychological Sciences & Social Sciences 2019 Aug;gbz097.
Článek vyšel v časopise
PLOS One
2019 Číslo 10
- S diagnostikou Parkinsonovy nemoci může nově pomoci AI nástroj pro hodnocení mrkacího reflexu
- Je libo čepici místo mozkového implantátu?
- Pomůže v budoucnu s triáží na pohotovostech umělá inteligence?
- AI může chirurgům poskytnout cenná data i zpětnou vazbu v reálném čase
- Nová metoda odlišení nádorové tkáně může zpřesnit resekci glioblastomů
Nejčtenější v tomto čísle
- Correction: Low dose naltrexone: Effects on medication in rheumatoid and seropositive arthritis. A nationwide register-based controlled quasi-experimental before-after study
- Combining CDK4/6 inhibitors ribociclib and palbociclib with cytotoxic agents does not enhance cytotoxicity
- Experimentally validated simulation of coronary stents considering different dogboning ratios and asymmetric stent positioning
- Risk factors associated with IgA vasculitis with nephritis (Henoch–Schönlein purpura nephritis) progressing to unfavorable outcomes: A meta-analysis
Zvyšte si kvalifikaci online z pohodlí domova
Všechny kurzy