A configural model of expert judgement as a preliminary epidemiological study of injury problems: An application to drowning
Autoři:
Damian Morgan aff001; Joan Ozanne-Smith aff002
Působiště autorů:
Federation Business School, Federation University Australia, Churchill, Victoria, Australia
aff001; Department of Forensic Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
aff002
Vyšlo v časopise:
PLoS ONE 14(10)
Kategorie:
Research Article
doi:
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0211166
Souhrn
Robust epidemiological studies identifying determinants of negative health outcomes require significant research effort. Expert judgement is proposed as an efficient alternative or preliminary research design for risk factor identification associated with unintentional injury. This proposition was tested in a multi-factorial balanced experimental design using specialist judges (N = 18), lifeguards and surfers, to assess the risk contribution to drowning for swimming ability, surf bathing experience, and wave height. All factors provided unique contributions to drowning risk (p < .001). An interaction (p = .02) indicated that occasional surf bathers face a proportionally increased risk of drowning at increased wave heights relative to experienced surf bathers. Although findings were limited by strict criteria, and no gold standard comparison data were available, the study provides new evidence on causal risk factors for a drowning scenario. Countermeasures based on these factors are proposed. Further application of the method may assist in developing new interventions to reduce unintentional injury.
Klíčová slova:
Analysis of variance – Beaches – Epidemiology – Medical risk factors – Polynomials – Research design – Swimming – Traumatic injury risk factors
Zdroje
1. Robertson L. Injury Epidemiology. 3rd ed. New York: Oxford University Press; 2007.
2. Susser M. What is a cause and how do we know one? A grammar for pragmatic epidemiology. Am J Epidemiol. 1991;133(7):635–48. doi: 10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a115939 2018019
3. Weisberg HI. Bias and Causation: Models and Judgement for Valid Comparisons. Hoboken NJ: Wiley; 2010.
4. World Health Organization. Global Report on Drowning: Preventing a Leading Killer. World Health Organization; 2014.
5. Morgan D. Counting Beach Visitors: Tools, Methods and Management Applications. In: Botero CM, Cervantes O, Finkl CW, editors. Beach Management Tools—Concepts, Methodologies and Case Studies. Cham: Springer International Publishing; 2018. p. 561–77.
6. Surf Life Saving Australia. National Coastal Safety Report 2015. 2015.
7. Morgan D, Ozanne-Smith J, Triggs T. Descriptive epidemiology of drowning deaths in a surf beach swimmer and surfer population. Inj Prev. 2008;14(1):62–5. doi: 10.1136/ip.2006.013508 18245318
8. Castelle B, Brander R, Tellier E, Simonnet B, Scott T, McCarroll J, et al. Surf zone hazards and injuries on beaches in SW France. Natural Hazards. 2018;93(3):1317–35.
9. Stokes C, Masselink G, Revie M, Scott T, Purves D, Walters T. Application of multiple linear regression and Bayesian belief network approaches to model life risk to beach users in the UK. Ocean & Coastal Management. 2017;139:12–23
10. Castelle B, Scott T, Brander RW & McCarroll RJ. Rip current types,circulation and hazard. Earth-Science Reviews. 2016:1631–21.
11. Morgan D, Ozanne-Smith J. Measurement of a drowning incidence rate combining direct observation of an exposed population with mortality statistics. International Journal of Injury Control and Safety Promotion. 2015;22(3):209–14. doi: 10.1080/17457300.2014.908226 24758173
12. Dawes RM. The robust beauty of improper linear models in decision making. Am Psychol. 1979;34(7):571–82. doi: 10.1037/0003-0066X.34.7.571
13. Otway H, Winterfeldt D. Expert judgment in risk analysis and management: process, context, and pitfalls. Risk Anal. 1992;12(1):83–93. doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1992.tb01310.x 1574619
14. Fayerweather WE, Collins JJ, Schnatter AR, Hearne FT, Menning RA, Reynefr DP. Quantifying uncertainty in a risk assessment using human data. Risk Anal. 1999;19(6):1077–90. doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.1999.tb01129.x 10765448
15. Morgan MG, Florig HK, DeKay ML, Fischbeck P. Categorizing risks for risk ranking. Risk Anal. 2000;20(1):49–58. doi: 10.1111/0272-4332.00005 10795338
16. Cox LA. Risk Analysis: Foundations, Models and Methods. Norwell: Kluwer Academic; 2002.
17. Hoffman PJ. The paramorphic representation of clinical judgment. Psychol Bull. 1960;57(2):116. doi: 10.1037/h0047807
18. Hoffman PJ. Cue-consistency and configurality in human judgment. In: Kleinmuntz B, editor. Formal Representation of Human Judgement. New York: Wiley; 1967. p. 53–90.
19. Hoffman PJ, Slovic P, Rorer LG. An analysis-of-variance model for the assessment of configural cue utilization in clinical judgment. Psychol Bull. 1968;69(5):338. doi: 10.1037/h0025665 5659659
20. Morgan D, Ozanne-Smith J. Surf bather drowning risk and exposure-related factors identified by an expert panel. International Journal of Aquatic Research and Education. 2012;6(4):336–49.
21. Edwards LK. Analysis of variance overview. In: Edwards LK, editor. Applied Analysis of Variance in Behavioral Science. New York: Marcel Dekker; 1993. p. 1–23.
22. Morgan D, Ozanne‐Smith J, Triggs T. Self‐reported water and drowning risk exposure at surf beaches. Aust N Z J Public Health. 2009;33(2):180–8. doi: 10.1111/j.1753-6405.2009.00367.x 19413864
23. Short AD. Beaches of the Victorian Coast & Port Phillip Bay: A Guide to their Nature, Characteristics, Surf and Safety. Sydney: Sydney University Press; 1996.
24. Bruine de Bruin W, Fischbeck PS, Stiber NA, Fischhoff B. What number is “fifty‐fifty”?: Redistributing excessive 50% responses in elicited probabilities. Risk Anal. 2002;22(4):713–23. doi: 10.1111/0272-4332.00063 12224745
25. Tabachnick BG, Fidell LS. Experimental Designs using ANOVA. Belmont: Thomson; 2007.
26. Howell DC. Statistical Methods for Psychology. 5th ed. Belmont: Duxbury Press; 2002.
27. Cotton JW. Latin Square Designs. In: Edwards LK, editor. Applied Analysis of Variance in Behavioral Science. New York: Marcel Dekker; 1993. p. 147–96.
28. Chi MTH. Laboratory methods for assessing experts’ and novices’ knowledge. In: Ericsson KA, Smith J, editors. The Cambridge Handbook of Expertise and Expert Performance. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 2006. p. 167–84.
29. Ericsson KA. An introduction to Cambridge handbook of expertise and expert performance: Its development, organization, and content. In: Ericsson KA, editor. The Cambridge Handbook of Expertise and Expert Performance. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press; 2006. p. 3–19.
30. Stevens JP. Applied Multivariate Statistics for the Social Sciences. Mahwah: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates; 2002.
31. Field AP. Discovering Statistics using SPSS 2nd ed. London: Sage; 2009.
32. Federer WT. Experimental Design: Theory and Application. New York: Macmillan; 1955.
33. van der Kloot W. Univariate and multivariate analysis of variance of longitudinal data. In: Bijleveld CCJH, Kamp LJTvd, Mooijaart A, Kloot WAvd, Leeden Rvd, Burg Evd, editors. Longitudinal Data Analysis: Designs, Models, & Methods. London: Sage; 1998. p. 155–206.
34. SPSS. Statistical software for Windows 16.0.0 ed. Chicago: SPSS; 2007.
35. SISA-Bonferroni [Internet]. 2008 [cited 22 November 2008]. Available from: http://www.quantitativeskills.com/sisa/.
36. Microsoft Corporation. Microsoft Excel. 15.0.4885.1000 ed 2013
37. Keppel G. Wickens TD. Design and Analysis: A Researcher’s Handbook. 4th ed. New Jersey: Pearson; 2004.
38. Wiggins N, Hoffman PJ, Taber T. Types of judges and cue utilization in judgments of intelligence. J Pers Soc Psychol. 1969;12(1):52–9. doi: 10.1037/h0027364 5790410
39. Green BF. Descriptions and explanations: A comment on papers by Hoffman and Edwards. In: Kleinmuntz B, editor. Formal Representation of Human Judgment. New York: Wiley; 1968. p. 91–8.
40. Doherty ME, Brehmer B. The paramorphic representation of clinical judgment: A thirty-year retrospective. In: Goldstein WM, Hogarth RM, editors. Research on Judgment and Decision Making: Currents, Connections, and Controversies New York: Cambridge University Press; 1997. p. 537–51.
41. Keselman HJ, Keselman JC. Analysis of repeated measurements. In: Edwards LK, editor. Applied Analysis of Variance in Behavioral Science. New York: Marcel Dekker; 1993. p. 105–45.
42. Podsakoff PM, MacKenzie SB, Lee J-Y, Podsakoff NP. Common method biases in behavioral research: a critical review of the literature and recommended remedies. J Appl Psychol. 2003;88(5):879–903. doi: 10.1037/0021-9010.88.5.879 14516251
43. Fisher RA. The Design of Experiments. 7th ed. Edinburgh: Oliver & Boyd; 1960.
44. McKay C, Brander RW, Goff J. Putting tourists in harms way–Coastal tourist parks and hazardous unpatrolled surf beaches in New South Wales, Australia. Tourism Management. 2014;45:71–84.
45. Queensland SLS. Gold Coast Beach Safe Program 2017. Available from: http://lifesaving.com.au/beach-safety/goldcoastbeachsafe/.
46. Western Australia SLS. Funding for Drone Surveillance Trial Announced [press release]. 10 October 2017 2016.
47. Life Saving Victoria. Nippers. Available from: http://lsv.com.au/clubs-members/nippers/.
48. Surf Life Saving New South Wales. Surf Awareness & Safety Programs 2017. Available from: http://www.surflifesaving.com.au/beach-safety/community-education/surf-awareness-safety-programs.
49. Cancer Council. SunSmart UV Alert 2009. Available from: http://www.cancer.org.au/content/pdf/PreventingCancer/BeSunsmart/SunSmartUValertbrochure.pdf#_ga=1.85363865.1248960893.1485486072.
50. Beachsafe. Welcome to Beachsafe 2017. Available from: https://beachsafe.org.au/.
51. Aschim H. Inflatable vests are no longer just for big wave pros. Outside. 2016 8 February.
52. Maslakovic M. Wearable devices that keep your children safe. Health & Fitness: Gadgets & Wearables. 2016 22 November.
Článek vyšel v časopise
PLOS One
2019 Číslo 10
- S diagnostikou Parkinsonovy nemoci může nově pomoci AI nástroj pro hodnocení mrkacího reflexu
- Je libo čepici místo mozkového implantátu?
- Pomůže v budoucnu s triáží na pohotovostech umělá inteligence?
- AI může chirurgům poskytnout cenná data i zpětnou vazbu v reálném čase
- Nová metoda odlišení nádorové tkáně může zpřesnit resekci glioblastomů
Nejčtenější v tomto čísle
- Correction: Low dose naltrexone: Effects on medication in rheumatoid and seropositive arthritis. A nationwide register-based controlled quasi-experimental before-after study
- Combining CDK4/6 inhibitors ribociclib and palbociclib with cytotoxic agents does not enhance cytotoxicity
- Experimentally validated simulation of coronary stents considering different dogboning ratios and asymmetric stent positioning
- Risk factors associated with IgA vasculitis with nephritis (Henoch–Schönlein purpura nephritis) progressing to unfavorable outcomes: A meta-analysis
Zvyšte si kvalifikaci online z pohodlí domova
Všechny kurzy