#PAGE_PARAMS# #ADS_HEAD_SCRIPTS# #MICRODATA#

ETAPOD: A forecast model for prediction of black pod disease outbreak in Nigeria


Autoři: Peter M. Etaware aff001;  Abiodun R. Adedeji aff002;  Oyedeji I. Osowole aff003;  Adegboyega C. Odebode aff001
Působiště autorů: Department of Botany, Faculty of Science, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria aff001;  Cocoa Research Institute of Nigeria (CRIN), Idi-Ayunre, Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria aff002;  Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Oyo State, Nigeria aff003
Vyšlo v časopise: PLoS ONE 15(1)
Kategorie: Research Article
doi: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0209306

Souhrn

Food poisoning and environmental pollution are products of excessive chemical usage in Agriculture. In Nigeria, cocoa farmers apply fungicides frequently to control black pod disease (BPD), this practice is life threatening and lethal to the environment. The development of a warning system to detect BPD outbreak can help minimize excessive usage of fungicide by farmers. 8 models (MRM1-MRM8) were developed and 5 (MRM1-MRM5) selected for optimization and performance check. MRM5 (ETAPOD) performed better than the other forecast models. ETAPOD had 100% performance rating for BPD prediction in Ekiti (2009, 2010, 2011 and 2015) with model efficiency of 95–100%. The performance of the model was rated 80% in 2010 and 2015 (Ondo) with model efficiency of 85–90%, 70% in 2011 (Osun) with model efficiency of 81–84%, 60% in 2010 (Ondo and Osun) and 2015 (Osun) with model efficiency of 75–80%, 40% in 2009 (Osun) with model efficiency of 65–69% and 0% 1n 2011 (Ondo) with model efficiency between 0 and 49%. ETAPOD is a simplified BPD detection device for the past, present and future.

Klíčová slova:

Agricultural workers – Epidemiology – Forecasting – Fungicides – Humidity – Nigeria – Pathogens – Plant pathology


Zdroje

1. Agbeniyi S.O. and Oni M.O. 2014. Field evaluation of copper based fungicides to control Phytophthora pod rot of cocoa in Nigeria, International Journal of Development and Sustainability 3(2): 388–392

2. Adegbola, M.O.K. 1972. Cocoa diseases of West Africa, 7th International Cocoa Research Conference, Douala, Cameroon pg179-184

3. Oluyole K. A. and Lawal J. O. 2008. Determinants of the occurrence of black pod disease of cocoa in Edo state, Nigeria: a multivariate probit analysis approach, Economics and Statistics Division, Cocoa Research Institute of Nigeria, Ibadan Nigeria, Journal of innovative development strategy, 2(2): 1–4

4. Oduwole, O. O. 2001. Sustainable cocoa production in Nigeria: Farmers perception of technology characteristics and socio-economic factors in adoption decision making. Proceedings from the 13th International Cocoa Research Conference, Cocoa Research Institute of Nigeria. pp. 1147–1152.

5. Taylor M. N. 2000. Review of Cocoa Production, Consumption, Stocks and Prices- 2, Cocoa Growers Bulletin. (52): 1–58

6. International Cocoa Organization [ICCO] 2005. World Cocoa production 2005. http://www.icco.org accessed on the 16th January, 2017 at 14:43GMT.

7. Evans H. C. 2007. Cacao diseases- The trilogy revisited. Journal of Phytopathology 97:1640–1643.

8. Anonymous 1995. Pest and disease: In Report on recent decline in cocoa production in Ghana and measures to revamp the industry, Report commissioned by the Office of the President of Ghana, pp. 43–44.

9. Agbeniyi S. O. and Adedeji A.R. 2003. Current Status of Black pod Epidemics in Nigeria, In Proceedings of 14th International Cocoa Research Conference, pp. 1377–1380.

10. Lawal J.O. and Emaku L.A. 2007. Evaluation of the effect of climatic changes on cocoa production in Nigeria: Cocoa Research Institute of Nigeria (CRIN) as a case study. African Crop Science Conference Proceedings (8): 423–426.

11. Oyekale A. S. 2012. Impact of climate change on cocoa agriculture and technical efficiency of cocoa farmers in South-west Nigeria. Journal of Hum. Ecology, 40(2): 143–148.

12. Oyekale A. S. 2015. Climate change induced occupational stress and reported morbidity among cocoa farmers in Southwestern Nigeria. Annals of agriculture and environmental medicine. 22(2): 357–361.

13. Simon G. 2003. Multiple regression basics. New York University press, Stern school of Business, New York pp18–58

14. Akrofi A.Y. 2015. Phytophthora megakarya: a review on its status as a pathogen on cacao in West Africa, African Crop Science Journal 23(1): 1–67

15. Luo, W. 2008. Spatial/Temporal modeling of crop disease data using high-dimensional regression, Ph.D. Thesis submitted to the Department of Statistics, University of Leads, 223pg.


Článek vyšel v časopise

PLOS One


2020 Číslo 1
Nejčtenější tento týden
Nejčtenější v tomto čísle
Kurzy

Zvyšte si kvalifikaci online z pohodlí domova

plice
INSIGHTS from European Respiratory Congress
nový kurz

Současné pohledy na riziko v parodontologii
Autoři: MUDr. Ladislav Korábek, CSc., MBA

Svět praktické medicíny 3/2024 (znalostní test z časopisu)

Kardiologické projevy hypereozinofilií
Autoři: prof. MUDr. Petr Němec, Ph.D.

Střevní příprava před kolonoskopií
Autoři: MUDr. Klára Kmochová, Ph.D.

Všechny kurzy
Kurzy Podcasty Doporučená témata Časopisy
Přihlášení
Zapomenuté heslo

Zadejte e-mailovou adresu, se kterou jste vytvářel(a) účet, budou Vám na ni zaslány informace k nastavení nového hesla.

Přihlášení

Nemáte účet?  Registrujte se

#ADS_BOTTOM_SCRIPTS#