Ageing and Alzheimer disease – system dynamics model prediction

Česká verze

Authors: Hana Tomášková; Jitka Kühnová; Kamil Kuča
Authors place of work: Fakulta informatiky a managementu, Univerzita Hradec Králové ¹; Přírodovědecká fakulta, Univerzita Hradec Králové ²; Centrum základního a aplikovaného výzkumu (CZAV), Univerzita Hradec Králové ³
Published in the journal: Čes. slov. Farm., 2016; 65, 99-103
Category: Původní práce

Summary

The aim of the paper is to describe asystem dynamics model applied on aprediction of the number of patients with Alzheimer’s disease in the EU in the future and related financial impacts. Dementia resulting from Alzheimer’s disease is the most widely spread type of dementia and is highly connected with the age of the person – the patient. Most people are diagnosed with Alzheimer’s disease when they are older than 64. The ageing of population will be an ongoing problem in the next few decades due to alow birth rate and increasing life expectancy. This is areason to focus on prediction models of Alzheimer’s disease and its impact on economy. The paper presents adynamic modelling approach of system dynamics. The created model of the EU population and patients with AD is expanded by afinancial submodel at the end. This submodel estimates the cost on patients from three available cost studies.

Key words:
systém dynamic • Alzhimer’s disease • population ageing

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